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Vanity Fair’s Predictions For Golden Globe Nominations 2019

Every 12 months, we are saying it, and once a year, it stays true: the Golden Globes are essentially the most predictably unpredictable main awards display, a glitzy however free-wheeling rite the place nominees are selected via about 90 idiosyncratic reporters who might or would possibly not have ever met Drew Barrymore. Yet expect the nominations—which can be being introduced Thursday, December 6, at five A.M. Pacific/eight A.M. Eastern—we will have to, as a result of that’s what we do round right here.

Below, V.F.’s crack crew of professionals reads the tea leaves to peer who has the most efficient shot at nabbing a kind of freshly redesigned trophies when the Globes air on NBC January 6. We would possibly not know who’s web hosting the telecast this 12 months, however we do know that A Star Is Born, The Favourite, and Sharp Objects must be expecting to have an excellent Thursday morning.

Best Motion Picture, Drama

A Star Is Born
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther

Warner Bros. has, for causes inexplicable to those awards predictors, asked that A Star Is Born no longer be thought to be for the comedy/musical class—so right here it’s as a substitute. Despite that useless handicap, the movie may be showered with nominations via the H.F.P.A., a gaggle that loves the massive and honest and gave Madonna an award for Evita (albeit within the musical class). Beyond that, right here’s the place the break up will get advantages fading former front-runner First Man, and the place Marvel may release its first actual foray into awards season with Black Panther. Bizarrely, Marielle Heller’s excellently dyspeptic comedy Can You Ever Forgive Me? may be being thought to be a drama these days, in order that may just destroy on this class.

Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

This appears like Cooper’s to lose, however however, the Globes are bizarre. Maybe the H.F.P.A. will opt for the false-toothed mugging of Malek, or Dafoe’s arty angst. The maximum tenuous prediction this is most probably Hawke, who has gained critics’ prizes however whose quiet, peculiar movie would possibly not snare the H.F.P.A.’s consideration. Myriad different actors may just take that 5th slot, together with Hugh Jackman for the in large part forgotten The Front Runner or son of Hollywood Lucas Hedges, whose Boy Erased has taken a big standing hit for the reason that fall fairs and may just use a spice up.

Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Viola Davis, Widows

The H.F.P.A. has given Lady Gaga an performing award sooner than, for her paintings on American Horror Story, and it appears like they’re going to once more for her revelatory debut movie efficiency. Fox Searchlight has requested that McCarthy compete right here relatively than in opposition to the juggernaut this is Emily Blunt’s Mary Poppins, and we would like she had a greater shot on the trophy. But barring the rest wild—Julia Roberts swooping in and raining Ben Is Back hearth on everybody, say—Gaga is the perhaps nominee and victor. We can’t say we disagree, although she is within the unsuitable class.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns

If early critic whispers are any indication, it sort of feels not likely that an awesome choice of other folks within the H.F.P.A. will love Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney romp, Vice, which turns out destined to garner combined critiques. But it’s a yes wager for a nomination anyway, given the movie’s topic, forged, and director. Meanwhile, in an international the place A Star Is Born and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are thought to be dramas—relatively than, respectively, a musical and a comedy (albeit an acerbic one)—there’s abruptly room for the mega-hit Crazy Rich Asians to nab a place at the roster. The different movies selected above all look like yes bets. No one’s going to face in the best way of a Disney musical like Mary Poppins Returns; The Favourite is a giddy satisfaction that, along with having status, is surely humorous; and Green Book, an target audience favourite on the Toronto Film Festival, stays cherished within the business regardless of itself.

Best Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Christian Bale, Vice
Steve Carell, Welcome to Marwen
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun

Three of those guys really feel like yes issues. Christian Bale is a smart actor whose paintings with Adam McKay has, to this point, been excellent; Vice must be no other. And an excessive amount of of the sector loves Viggo Mortensen for someone to be too hung up on Green Book’s retrograde worldview, or the truth that his efficiency—through which Mortensen tries his hand at enjoying an Italian-American driving force and muscle guy who folds whole pizza pies to devour them entire—is slightly too spaghetti-and-meatballs to compare the actor’s ultimate paintings. The international loves Lin-Manuel Miranda an excessive amount of for his flip in Mary Poppins to head disregarded as nicely, and we want to assume that the similar applies to Robert Redford’s late-career-best paintings in The Old Man & the Gun. As for that closing slot, pundits appear to have a watch on Steve Carel_ (who’s all the time higher in comedies than drama)—however we’re keeping out for Lakeith Stanfield in Sorry to Bother You, and even Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool 2 as a substitute.

Best Actress, Motion Picture, Comedy

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

This class turns out simple. Emily Blunt, Olivia Colman, and Elsie Fisher are all so lauded. Meanwhile, Charlize Theron is memorable and admirably low-key in Tully, and Constance Wu carries Crazy Rich Asians with grace, giving the tale the loving heat it must offset its abundance of monied pizzazz.

Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

This is the listing that many pundits be expecting to peer nominated on the Academy Awards as nicely—save, most likely, for Driver, who offers a super efficiency in a movie whose awards momentum turns out to have stalled since summer season. But the Globes love off-the-beaten-path nods, in addition to huge, crowd-pleasing motion pictures—which might additionally imply that reigning Golden Globe supporting-actor winner Sam Rockwell will display up right here for the eerily on-point George W. Bush impact he does in Vice. If The Favourite wins over the Globes with its duration flare and outré content material, Nicholas Hoult may just sneak in as nicely. By and big, regardless that, the sphere turns out set—and prefer it is going to reappear when the Oscar noms are printed.

Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture

Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Perennial Oscar bridesmaid Adams has had higher good fortune on the Globes: seven nominations during the last 10 years, two of which in truth ended in wins. That may just make her the front-runner on this class, regardless of stiff pageant from the 2 Favourites no longer operating within the main class and from King, who has been racking up awards for her shattering Beale Street efficiency. Yeoh, we all know, is the outlier amongst those selections—however in an international the place First Man has light quietly into the background, even Golden Globes golden woman Claire Foy turns out much less more likely to pass the gap. That leaves a slot open for Yeoh, who exudes a steely heat in a success rom-com with world enchantment.

Best Director, Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

We’re straying somewhat from the awards-pundit hegemony right here, since the H.F.P.A. may simply be elementary sufficient to laud McKay for his messy, cursory indictment of Dick Cheney. They additionally may forget about the talk surrounding Green Book in choose of the narrative of a large comedy director, Farrelly, going semi-serious. If the gang is much less fascinated with that tale, Damien Chazelle or Barry Jenkins may just display up on this class, regardless that First Man’s frequently dimming possibilities are making issues more difficult for Chazelle. The spoiler we’d love to peer? Ryan Coogler for Black Panther or Marielle Heller for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
A Star Is Born

This feels open-ended, with a couple of exceptions. Green Book, First Reformed, and The Favourite appear dependable sure-bets for being cherished, revered, and entertaining, respectively. Beyond that, Vice additionally turns out most likely for a quotation; everybody loves an formidable political satire. Which may additionally be what offers BlacKkklansman the brink—however we suspect the closing slot will pass to A Star Is Born, which, regardless that it’s the fourth remake of this film and no longer so other from the others, remains to be handsomely conceived and written. We’d love to peer If Beale Street Could Talk—an astonishing James Baldwin adaptation—get the nod as a substitute, however that movie’s momentum is slightly arduous to parse.

Best TV Series, Drama

The Handmaid’s Tale
Killing Eve

Ozark and The Handmaid’s Tale, each of their sophomore seasons, can be expecting repeat nominations within the drama-series class this 12 months, particularly with contenders Stranger Things and Game of Thrones out of the operating for this awards cycle. (This Is Us, which surprised in its first season, turns out to have misplaced maximum of its buzz.) That being mentioned, with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s historic emphasis at the new and the buzzy, the class is also a discipline to honor thrilling debuts—like BBC America’s Killing Eve, which the Emmys already identified via nominating Sandra Oh, or HBO’s summer-splash hit Succession, which takes at the darkish underbelly of mega-billionaires with nasty aptitude. It’s all depending on what sort of for-your-consideration marketing campaign goes to seduce the citizens. Will or not it’s Pose’s candy retelling of queer existence within the 80s, or the doom and gloom of Handmaid Tale’s dystopia? Keep a watch on Paramount’s Yellowstone as nicely, an sudden rankings hit starring Kevin Costner this is simply buzzy sufficient to catch the attention of a stray voter.

Best Actress, TV Series, Drama

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
Robin Wright, House of Cards

This goes to be an actual mess. Elisabeth Moss, Caitriona Balfe, and Maggie Gyllenhaal have been all nominated closing 12 months, and there’s no explicit explanation why for them to no longer be nominated once more. But they’re arising in opposition to a number of stiff contenders—before everything Julia Roberts, whose first foray into tv with Homecoming inspired sufficient audience gold statuette could be impending. Evan Rachel Wood may just really well be nominated for her persistently spectacular paintings in any other much-discussed season of Westworld as nicely. And this autumn’s Emmys threw a couple of extra wrenches into the combo: Sandra Oh’s nomination for Killing Eve put her, and the display, at the business’s radar; and regardless that Keri Russell didn’t win in her class, co-star Matthew Rhys did win for the closing season of The Americans (and gave a touching tribute to his coworker and romantic spouse onstage). And The Americans isn’t the one display with a buzzy ultimate season. House of Cards, too, tried to erase Kevin Spacey via raising Robin Wright—and regardless that that effort didn’t somewhat paintings from a plotting point of view, Wright may just muscle her approach right into a nomination. Roberts is most probably the shoo-in to win, given how delicate to stardom the HFPA is. But Gyllenhaal, Oh, Russell, Newton, and now Moss have nabbed their percentage of accolades and mag covers, too. Plus, by no means doubt the Globes’ talent to get a hold of a really bonkers selection—similar to closing 12 months, after they nominated 13 Reasons Why’s Katherine Langford. What in regards to the lost sight of Mandy Moore for This Is Us, or Christine Baranski for The Good Fight? It’s the Globes: Anything may just occur.

Best Actor, TV Series, Drama

Kevin Costner, Yellowstone
John Krasinski, Jack Ryan
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

If there’s something we’ve discovered to wager on on this existence, it’s the Golden Globes’ ongoing love affair with Showtime’s Ray Donovan. Yes, the display remains to be operating; sure, Jon Voight as soon as gained an award for it; and sure, closing 12 months, Liev Schrieber used to be nominated as soon as once more for the titular position of Ray Donovan. We can handiest suppose he’ll be nominated once more. The remainder of the class is somewhat softer. The Globes have been inspired with The Good Doctor’s Freddie Highmore closing 12 months; they could be in a similar fashion entranced via John Krasinski’s reasonably cast paintings in a brand new interpretation of Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan. And Yellowstone, on Paramount, has an ace within the hollow: Kevin Costner, whose presence has made that display into an sudden rankings hit. Bob Odenkirk is a favourite for his persisted paintings on Better Call Saul, and Matthew Rhys simply gained the Emmy for this class, which ought to extend his probabilities for the Globe, too. The business has taken an actual shine to Jason Bateman in Ozark, and given his superstar energy, Westworld’s Ed Harris may have the most efficient likelihood of any of his costars to wreck into the nominees. But all bets are off: Sterling Ok. Brown remains to be surprising audiences on This Is Us, and Jeffrey Wright is, certainly, the lynchpin keeping Westworld in combination, this means that both of them may just snag a nod as nicely.

Best TV Series, Comedy

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Though the HFPA adores planting its flag at the thrilling and new, it’s arduous to believe a display on this relatively lackluster TV 12 months that might outshine closing 12 months’s darling The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. The display’s 2nd season, which is already garnering heat opinions, can even have the benefit of airing proper on the finish of the 12 months, making it most up to date within the minds of citizens. The new children at the block that may give Midge Maisel a run for her cash are Showtime’s Kidding, Emmy favourite Barry, and the extra difficult to understand however severely cherished Forever. (The HFPA loves difficult to understand.) It’s tough to ascertain an international the place Atlanta’s 2nd season will get omitted of the dialog, however glance out for Netflix’s The Kominsky Method to in all probability take the FX darling’s slot. If there’s something that the HFPA loves greater than new and difficult to understand, it’s Hollywood royalty like Michael Douglas and Alan Arkin.

Best Actress, TV Series, Comedy

Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Jennifer Garner, Camping
Issa Rae, Insecure
Maya Rudolph, Forever

Once once more, closing 12 months’s winner, Rachel Brosnahan, appears like an actual lock right here—however this really is a class the place the HFPA loves to surprise and wonder via nominating and honoring somebody sudden and new. (See: closing 12 months’s nomination for SMILF superstar Frankie Shaw, to call however one instance.) So whilst their displays would possibly not had been large hits, they usually might not be new to TV basically, Jennifer Garner and Maya Rudolph really feel like precisely the type of main girls the HFPA loves to unmarried out. Add two-time nominee Issa Rae and Alison Brie—who gave a a lot more restrained and compelling efficiency in GLOW Season 2—and you’ve got a powerful line-up of proficient, humorous girls.

Best Actor, TV Series, Comedy

Jim Carrey, Kidding
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry

Much like comedy actress, this class feels adore it may just simply fall in lock step with the Emmys and provides the popular, multi-hyphenate Bill Hader his due for developing, writing, directing, and starring in Barry. But right here’s the place the HFPA may really chase after stars and praise Jim Carrey for his go back to TV. Michael Douglas and Ted Danson as elder statesmen and institutional favorites additionally appear a most likely wager for this class—however the HFPA could be maximum remiss if Donald Glover didn’t sign up for Hader as any other multi-talented, multi-hyphenate main guy.

Best Limited Series or TV Movie

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Escape at Dannemora
Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert
Patrick Melrose
Sharp Objects

The Golden Globes are the place prestigious restricted sequence and made-for-TV motion pictures shine—and within the Peak TV period, there are dozens of lush productions to make a choice from. Showtime’s Patrick Melrose, starring Benedict Cumberbatch, is a great wager—as is HBO’s star-studded Sharp Objects, led via superstar Amy Adams. Emmy-sweeping The Assassination of Gianni Versace must even be nominated, and could be the shoo-in to win. But this can be a tight class. Up in opposition to those 3: Jesus Christ Superstar, which delivered the live-action musical numbers the Hollywood Foreign Press loves to fall for; Netflix’s fantastically made Maniac, with its A-list stars; and Showtime’s Escape at Dannemora, which has the added benefit of a well known superstar at the back of the digicam, too. We wouldn’t put a rogue nomination out of the query on this class, both, given simply how crowded the sphere is: Trust, on FX, with Brendan Fraser and Donald Sutherland, or Waco, on Paramount, starring Taylor Kitsch. And regardless that it’s not likely, the HFPA ought to appoint HBO’s surprising movie The Tale, which has criminally fallen off the radar in the previous couple of months.

Best Actress, Limited Series or TV Movie

Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Laura Dern, The Tale
Edie Falco, Law and Order True Crime: The Menendez Brothers
Regina King, Seven Seconds
Emma Stone, Maniac

Emmy winner Regina King must be nominated right here, once more, for Netflix’s Seven Seconds, however she’ll have stiff pageant: awards magnet_Emma Stone, who starred in Netflix’s restricted sci-fi sequence Maniac; Amy Adams, who grew to become in a career-best efficiency in Sharp Objects; and titanic skill Laura Dern, whose efficiency in The Tale is a fancy portrayal of energy amidst vulnerability. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s affection for large wigs and adventurous superstar turns may lead them against any other position that the Emmys, too, nominated: Edie Falco_in Law and Order True Crime: The Menendez Brothers, a miniseries just about immediately forgotten except for for Falco’s magnificent, sprawling perm.

Best Actor, Limited Series or TV Movie

Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Benicio Del Toro, Escape at Dannemora
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Richard Madden, The Bodyguard

FX’s Fargo most often supplies a contender or two for this class, however with Noah Hawley’s star-studded crime anthology out of the operating, search for Emmy winner Darren Criss to carry house the statue for FX. There isn’t a lot threatening him by means of pageant, however 3 Brits may do their damndest. Hugh Grant’s charmingly louche and venal flip in A Very English Scandal is bound to catch the eyes of votes, as will Richard Madden’s James Bond audition in The Bodyguard. (The BBC/Netflix display used to be well-regarded right here, however an absolute phenomenon within the U.Ok.) Finally, Golden Globe favourite Benedict Cumberbatch is more likely to get some love for his flip in Patrick Melrose, and it’s arduous to believe the celebrity-obsessed HFPA passing at the film superstar attract of Benicio Del Toro within the Ben Stiller-directed Escape at Dannemora.

Best Supporting Actor, TV Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Ricky Martin, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry

As the Peak TV period wears on, it’s more and more ridiculous for the Globes to squeeze each unmarried non-leading TV actor into the similar cramped class—in particular if the awards proceed to insist on deciding on simply 5 nominees. Nevertheless, this quintet turns out more likely to make the lower: reigning Emmy winner Winkler; inclined and vengeful Whishaw; Shalhoub, who already has a passel of Monk nods beneath his belt; and two admittedly left-field alternatives, from a little-watched Netflix sequence and an American Crime Story season with much less have an effect on than the mighty O.J. Simpson tale. Still: The Kominsky Method turns out like the type of inside-showbiz tale the Globes loves, and honoring Ricky Martin over Edgar Ramirez is solely this type of kooky factor the Globes would do.

Best Supporting Actress , TV Series, Limited Series, or TV Movie

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale

The TV supporting actress discipline turns out rather less overwhelming than supporting actor, and extra predictable as nicely—most likely as it’s so obviously Patricia Clarkson’s to lose. Nevertheless, Clarkson will perhaps be up in opposition to those 4 robust performers, regardless that earlier nominee Ann Dowd may just really well switch puts together with her fellow Gilead denizen Strahovski. Or the Globes may just do one thing really bonkers and usher in, say, Hilary Swank for Trust as a substitute. With this display, you by no means in point of fact know.

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